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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft after GDP, Euro Extends Recovery

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Dollar remains generally soft, except versus yen, after release of Q1 GDP data from US. US economy grew 3.2% annualized rate in Q1, slightly below expectation of 3.4%. Price index rose 0.9% as expected while core PCE rose 0.6%. Employment costs jumped 0.6% in Q1 too. From Canada, GDP expanded less than expected by 0.3% mom in February. IPPI dropped -0.4% mom in March with RMPI rose 0.8%. Released earlier, Eurozone CPI was unchanged at 1.5% yoy in APril while unemployment was also steady at 10% in March. Swiss KOF leading indicator rose to 1.99 in April.

Euro extends recovery as European Commission said that talks to finalize the overall rescue package could be wrapped up by Saturday. Also there are rumors that German financial and industrial firms will contribute between EUR 1-2b to the Greece rescue package. CDS on Greek bonds dropped further towards 600 level, down from above 800 earlier this week while CDS on Portugal and Spain also fell.

SNB President Hildebrand said today that if Swiss Franc appreciate sharply because of safe haven flow, there would be a "negative impact". Hildebrand reiterated that SNB will not allow this "development to turn into a new deflation hazard" and the bank will act decisive to "prevent an excessive appreciation." Also Hildebrand said that "financial market concerns that have arisen about the public finances of individual euro area countries represent a considerable risk" to economic recovery.

The turn to risk appetite this week sent Japanese yen lower while commodity currencies are benefited. NZD/JPY takes out 68.62 resistance today and affirm the case that consolidation from 69.70 is over. We'd anticipate more strength in the cross in near term and a break of 69.70 eventually to resume medium term rise from 2009 low of 44.19.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart


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