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USDJPY: Signs Of Price Exhaustion On The Horizon

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USDJPY preserves most of its recovery gains activated from the 84.80 level, its Nov'10 low but its weekly and daily price charts show some forms of price exhaustion as the week ended on Friday. The weekly chart (not shown here) shows the inability (ahead of key resistance) of the pair to follow through higher on its previous week strength to close lower for the week at 93.86 on Friday. This can be clearly seen on the daily chart through its negative higher level price rejection candle printed at the end of Friday session. All these are signs of a loss of upside momentum of its move from the 84.80 to 94.76 levels. While we are not rushing to judgment on the new technical development in USDJPY, we think this is worth watching by traders to prevent them from being on the wrong side. These new technical red flags suggest an impending move lower again. Two key support levels to watch for the confirmation of this development are the 92.72 level, the April 22'10 low and the 91.58 level, the April 19'10 low. The latter level should reverse roles and provide support thus pushing the pair back up in the direction of its short-term uptrend. However, a loss of there will signal an important top and turn downside risk towards its Mar 22'10 low/short-term rising trendline at 89.92/83 where a cap may occur. Alternatively, a retarget of April 30'10 high at 94.57 will put our upside view on hold and set the stage for a run at the 2010 high at 93.76. A breach of there will resume its short-term uptrend triggered from the 84.80 level towards its Aug'09 high at 97.77 and next the 101.43 level, its April'09 high. Overall, though maintaining its short-term uptrend, that trend has run into bear pressure and may be preparing to reverse lower.

Mohammed Isah

This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


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