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USD/JPY Forecast July 3, 2012, Technical Analysis

Autore: FX Empire Analyst - Christopher Lewis

The USD/JPY pair declined during the session on Monday as traders pared back long bets in this market. The pair slammed into the 80 level, only to be turned away in the end. However, at the end of the session the Dollar did gain a bit on the Yen, and it does look like the pair wants to rise to the 80 level again.

This particular currency pair is very sensitive to the nonfarm payroll numbers, and as such may do very little between now and that announcement on Friday. With this in mind, we are flat of this market, but need to see a break above the 80.60 level in order to become confident enough to go long. As for selling this market, we simply won’t because of the central-bank manipulation below the current area.

More than likely, we will be very quiet this week in this particular market as the headlines out of Britain, Europe, and the United States will push and pull the risk appetite back and forth, but without a doubt the biggest announcement this week will be those nonfarm payroll numbers previously mentioned. This is because the Federal Reserve has stated that the monetary policy is going to be built around the employment situation in the United States.

The US dollar should gain on the Yen this Friday if we see a strong jobs number. This is simply because the Bank of Japan has been so aggressive in trying to weaken the value of the Yen. If the employment situation in the United States is the least reasonable, there’s a good chance that the Federal Reserve won’t be involved in monetary easing. By extension, that should push this pair much higher.

In fact, if we can close on a daily candle above the 80.60 level, we suspect that this pair could move as high as 84 without any serious resistance. On top of that, if we can break the 84 level we should move much, much higher. This in fact would be a long-term trade for us if we get that signal, but the reality is that we probably won’t until at least Friday.


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